Msci World Backtest [REAL · 2027]

Annualized return ~23%. The MSCI World became increasingly tech-heavy (US tech weight grew from ~10% to 28%). Backtest shows this period was driven by multiple expansion, not earnings. Warning: many backtests fail to adjust for the fact that MSCI removed some tech losers post-2000 (survivorship bias).

Executive Summary

The index launched just before the 1987 Black Monday crash (-23% in one month). This is a critical reminder: even diversified global equity can crash simultaneously. Recovery took 22 months. The early 1990s recession and Gulf War saw flat returns. msci world backtest